Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend in antimony prices, driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector and flame retardants [2][3][5]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - On March 13, 2025, the price of antimony ingots (0, Sb≥99.90%, domestic) reached 173,000 yuan/ton, with a 19% increase from February 6 to March 13, 2025 [2]. - The antimony price center has shifted upwards, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by June 28, 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is expected to continue declining, with a projected production of 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year decrease, accounting for only 10% of global antimony production [4]. - The company's inventory value for antimony dropped significantly from 2.2 million dollars in 2023 to 100,000 dollars in 2024, indicating substantial sales of existing inventory [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for antimony is expected to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector, with household appliances accounting for 22% of this demand in 2021 [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, with daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increasing by 8.2% to 86,800 tons as of March 7, 2025, compared to the low point in February [5]. Group 4: Global Supply-Demand Gap - The global supply of antimony is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [7].
【有色】供给降需求增，锑价格有望高位再向上——锑行业系列报告之六（王招华/方驭涛/王秋琪）
光大证券研究·2025-03-17 09:06