张瑜：今年或是“科技股友好型”财政——宏观看科技股系列二

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the fiscal policy for 2025 is "technology stock friendly," driven by a high deficit and moderate spending, which may positively influence technology stock valuations [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Budget Characteristics: "High Deficit" and "Low Income" Combined with "Moderate Spending" - The budget features a deficit rate of 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, marking a historical high, with a deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan from last year [4]. - The income growth rate for the budget is set at only 0.1%, the lowest in recent years, primarily due to tax revenue being pressured by prices and a decrease in non-tax one-time income [5]. - The expenditure growth rate is arranged at 4.4%, close to the average levels of 2023 and 2024, indicating a commitment to expand fiscal spending to support economic development [6]. 2. How Fiscal Policy Affects Technology Stocks - Technology stock performance is influenced by industry trends and valuations, with fiscal policy impacting the latter through investor sentiment and discount rates [6][7]. - The deficit serves as a signal to boost investor sentiment, while spending affects the discount rate, which in turn influences the intrinsic value of technology companies [6][7]. 3. What is "Technology Stock Friendly" Fiscal Policy? - A high deficit is seen as beneficial for technology stock valuations, as it protects investor sentiment without interfering with industry trends [8]. - Moderate spending that aligns with nominal GDP growth can stabilize technology stock valuations, preventing undue pressure from rising risk premiums [9]. 4. Why This Year May Be "Technology Stock Friendly" - Historical patterns indicate that when the deficit rate increases by 1 percentage point or the broad deficit rate rises by 2 percentage points, technology stocks tend to see valuation increases [10][11]. - The current fiscal spending growth is expected to align closely with nominal GDP growth, which historically has favored technology stocks over consumer stocks [11]. 5. Fiscal Resilience and Challenges - The article posits that the risk of fiscal shortfalls is low this year, supported by strong central and provincial fiscal reserves, which may help mitigate systemic risks [12][13]. - Six major provinces show resilience in their fiscal targets, indicating a potential for recovery in local government revenues, which is crucial for overall fiscal health [13][14].