深度专题 | 债市的“盲点”？——兼论长债利率从“2%”到“1%”的距离

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market following a prolonged bull market, highlighting potential blind spots in investment strategies and suggesting a revised research framework for 2025 [2][9]. Recent Changes in the Bond Market - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment after a long bull run, with notable changes in market sentiment and increased divergence among investors [3][4]. - Key characteristics of the bond market in 2023 include a rapid decline in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 94 basis points (bp) since January, while the 1-year yield decreased by 53 bp [3][10]. - The economic backdrop includes a projected GDP growth decline from 6.5% to 5.4% between Q2 2023 and Q4 2024, alongside a decrease in the MLF rate from 2.75% to 2.00% [3][12]. Investment Blind Spots - The bond market may have entered a period of volatility, particularly as long-term interest rates fall below 2%, which historically leads to several years of oscillation [4][16]. - The extreme market positioning since 2022 has led to a significant deviation from historical norms, with the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the overall A-share dividend yield reaching a negative value of -0.9% by January 2025 [5][26]. Revised Framework for Bond Market Research - The article emphasizes the need for a "rebalancing" approach in asset allocation, as recent policy signals and economic indicators suggest a shift in market dynamics [6][27]. - As of March 14, 2025, mixed funds have a stock holding ratio of 70.5%, indicating a relatively low position compared to historical data, while the 10-year government bond yield remains significantly below the high-dividend stock index yield of 3.35% [6][30]. - The article suggests that the current state of the bond market may lead to a prolonged period of volatility, necessitating a strategic focus on asset allocation [6][35].