聚焦全球能源 | 美国对加拿大加征关税或将推动亚洲炼油企业毛利上升

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. on energy imports from Canada is expected to increase crude oil costs for U.S. refiners, leading them to source crude from other regions, which will benefit Asian refining companies through improved margins from increased product exports [3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. and Asian Refiners - U.S. refiners, primarily processing heavy crude oil, will face higher raw material costs due to the tariff, potentially increasing costs by $6 to $8 per barrel [5]. - As a result, U.S. refiners may rely more on Asian product supplies, benefiting Asian refiners from the short-term increase in refining margins [4][5]. - However, the upward trend in margins for Asian refiners is expected to be temporary, as tightening global heavy crude supply will eventually raise processing costs for refiners worldwide [4]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The price differential between WTI low-sulfur and high-sulfur crude has narrowed since November of the previous year, indicating rising heavy crude prices and shrinking refining margins [4]. - The heavy-light crude price differential in Asia may also follow a similar trend in the second half of the year [4]. - The tariff could lead to increased competition among global refiners for heavy crude procurement, potentially erasing the cost advantages for Asian refiners [5]. Group 3: China's Fuel Export Outlook - In 2024, China's total exports of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are projected to reach 36.7 million tons, a decrease of 12.6% from the previous year [7]. - The first batch of refined oil export quotas for 2025 announced by China is set at 1.9 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year [7]. - If the U.S. increases fuel imports from Asia, this situation may change in the short term [7].