主题｜固态电池：积极信号持续聚积

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is expected to mature significantly by 2025, with a projected global shipment of solid-state batteries reaching 642.6 GWh by 2030, representing a CAGR of 133% from 2024 to 2030 [1][6][39]. Industry Overview - Solid-state batteries can be categorized into four systems: polymer, oxide, sulfide, and halide, with the core process focusing on the solid electrolyte film formation [1][10]. - The solid-state battery supply chain is divided into upstream resources, battery materials, equipment, solid-state battery manufacturers, and downstream applications [2][27]. Upstream Resources - The oxide route's rapid industrialization is expected to drive demand for zirconium, while the industrialization of sulfide and lithium metal anodes may double lithium consumption [3][28]. - By 2030, the demand for zirconium in the solid-state battery sector is projected to reach 78,000 tons, with a CAGR of 106.7% from 2024 to 2030 [29]. - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to increase global lithium demand by 5% by 2030, with a projected demand of 55,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [31]. Battery Materials - The solid electrolyte is a key focus, with expected growth in conductive agents, silicon anodes, and semi-solid separators benefiting from the solid-state battery industry's expansion [3][34]. - The production of solid-state battery materials is expected to ramp up starting in 2024, with new solid electrolyte routes becoming established [34]. Equipment - The next two years are expected to be a period of rapid development for solid-state battery processes and equipment, with significant investment opportunities anticipated [36]. - The investment per GWh for solid-state battery equipment is projected to be higher than for liquid and semi-solid batteries, with an estimated investment of approximately 17.81 billion yuan by 2030 [36]. Battery Manufacturers - Leading battery manufacturers that establish early production capacity and scale are likely to gain competitive advantages [3][38]. - Major Chinese companies are making significant progress in solid-state battery development, with plans for mass production by 2027 [17][38]. Downstream Applications - Solid-state batteries are becoming a critical focus in the new wave of technology competition in the electric vehicle sector, with high-end applications in humanoid robots, eVTOL, and consumer electronics expected to ramp up by 2025 [3][39]. - The penetration rates for solid-state batteries in various sectors are projected to reach 25% in electric vehicles, 50% in consumer electronics, and 60% in eVTOL by 2030 [6][39].