日本国债市场复盘及启示｜低利率驱动因素及阶段反转必要条件

Core Viewpoint - The long-term downward trend of Japanese government bond yields is primarily driven by continuous declines in nominal GDP growth, weak loan demand from the real economy, and persistent monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, reflecting similar long-term macroeconomic issues faced by China [2][6][9]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Japan's real economic growth has been on a downward trajectory since the bursting of the bubble economy, leading to a sustained decline in nominal GDP growth [2]. - Factors contributing to this trend include an aging population, decreased corporate investment willingness, and declining total factor productivity [2]. - The long-term low interest rate environment in Japan is driven by three main factors: continuous decline in nominal GDP growth, weak loan demand from the real economy, and ongoing monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context of Bond Yields - The rapid rebound of Japan's 10-year government bond yields in 1998 and 2003 was preceded by historical lows, influenced by both fundamental factors and increased demand from financial institutions for government bonds [2][10]. - The 1998 bond market turmoil was driven by concerns over supply-demand conditions and the implementation of significant economic stimulus measures, leading to a rise in bond yields [10][11]. - In 2003, despite some economic indicators improving, weak consumer demand led to increased purchases of government bonds by financial institutions, resulting in a decline in bond yields [13][16]. Group 3: Institutional Investor Behavior - Since the 1990s, the structure of Japan's government bond market has evolved, with banks and insurance companies increasing their holdings of government bonds, reaching a combined share of approximately 62.7% by 2012 [21][22]. - Following the bubble burst, the Japanese life insurance sector shifted its asset allocation towards fixed-income assets, with the proportion of government bonds in their portfolios rising significantly [28][30]. - The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing policies have led to significant changes in the asset structure of domestic banks, with a notable reduction in their holdings of government bonds [36][37].