“第二次广场协议”不得不防

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].