美联储转向“滞胀剧本”，鲍威尔宣布大幅放慢缩表

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has extended its wait-and-see approach on interest rates while raising inflation forecasts and lowering economic growth and employment outlooks for the year [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decisions - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate stable at around 4.3% as it assesses the impact of various policies from the Trump administration on the economic outlook [2][4]. - Recent economic predictions show that 11 out of 19 decision-makers expect at least two rate cuts this year, a decrease from 15 officials' expectations in December [4]. - The inflation rate is projected to rise from 2.5% in January to 2.7% due to tariffs, with officials indicating that progress in reducing inflation may be temporarily delayed [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with consumer sentiment declining and stable hiring, as evidenced by a 4.1% unemployment rate in February [6]. - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is now forecasted at 1.7%, down from 2.1% predicted in December [4][5]. - Despite a slowdown in consumer spending, the labor market remains robust, but uncertainty in policies is affecting loan demand and business operations [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Expectations - The Federal Reserve's response will largely depend on whether businesses and consumers expect sustained price increases, as these expectations can become self-fulfilling [7]. - There is growing concern that tariffs may lead to inflationary psychology among consumers and businesses, prompting them to raise prices preemptively [7]. - The Federal Reserve has approved a plan to slow the reduction of its $6.8 trillion asset portfolio, allowing $5 billion in Treasury securities to mature each month without reinvestment, down from the current pace of $25 billion [7].