半月追踪 | 沪深津汉等部分城市“小阳春”成色足

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, with expectations for continued stabilization and potential growth in the second quarter of 2025 [1][17]. Group 1: Market Recovery Indicators - As of mid-March 2025, new home sales in key cities have seen a significant increase, with a 28% week-on-week rise and a 16% year-on-year growth [4]. - First-tier cities are leading the recovery, with weekly sales volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen matching the average levels of the second half of 2024, driven by policy stimuli and the introduction of appealing properties [4][5]. - The overall new home transaction volume in March is expected to exceed a 20% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust recovery trend [3][4]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing a "quality over quantity" approach in new home launches, resulting in high sales rates, with Shanghai's sales rate reaching 74% and Shenzhen's at 66% as of mid-March 2025 [6]. - Cities like Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan are showing signs of gradual recovery, with transaction levels returning to those of the previous year, particularly in Wuhan where sales have increased by 34% year-on-year [8][11]. - Conversely, cities such as Zhengzhou and Nanjing are witnessing increased visitor numbers but declining conversion rates, indicating a lack of purchasing momentum [14][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to maintain a high level of activity, particularly in first-tier cities, as promotional efforts and new listings are anticipated to increase supply and demand [17]. - Core second-tier cities like Tianjin and Wuhan are projected to experience a recovery in transaction volumes following previous adjustments, with a steady upward trend expected [17].