指数研究｜全球股票市场结构与运行特征解析

Core Insights - The report focuses on the characteristics and structural changes of the global stock market, providing quantitative tracking and horizontal comparisons for investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dominates developed markets with a 74% weight in the MSCI developed market index, while China, Taiwan, and India are emerging market powerhouses with 28%, 20%, and close to 20% respectively [2] - The technology and financial sectors are the main drivers of market growth globally, with tech stocks being the most actively traded in major markets [2] - Global capital is increasingly flowing into Asia, with technology and finance sectors being the core drivers of capital market performance [2] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Liquidity - As of January 2025, the total market capitalization of NYSE and NASDAQ exceeds $30 trillion, significantly higher than other global exchanges [3] - The average daily trading volume of US stocks and Shenzhen Stock Exchange exceeds $100 billion, while some Southeast Asian markets have daily trading volumes below $10 million, indicating limited liquidity in certain emerging markets [3] - Over the past five years, the number of global listed companies has remained stable, with developed markets experiencing slower growth, while emerging markets like China and India are the main growth drivers [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Returns - In February 2025, the MSCI emerging market index rose by 0.4%, while the MSCI developed market index fell by 0.8%, indicating mixed performance across global markets [4] - The US market has shown the strongest long-term returns from 2010 to 2024, with the NASDAQ100 achieving an annualized return of 24% driven by tech stocks [5] - Asian markets exhibit significant internal structural differences, with Japan, Taiwan, and India showing annualized returns exceeding 10%, while markets like Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines have experienced negative returns due to economic slowdowns and capital outflows [5] Group 4: Valuation Trends - Major developed markets are maintaining high valuations, while some emerging markets face significant valuation pressures [6] - As of February 2025, US, Australian, and Taiwanese markets are at historical highs, while markets in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia still have relative valuation advantages [6] - The S&P 500 has surpassed a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5, indicating strong market confidence in US earnings, while other markets like Taiwan and India also maintain high PE ratios [6]