中金 | 美国住宅市场：2025会出现周期转折吗？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market has completed a small cycle since 2022, with potential changes expected by 2025 due to macroeconomic shifts. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting clearer direction. Future investment opportunities are suggested in the upstream and downstream sectors related to second-hand housing, such as real estate agencies and home improvement retail [1][3]. Market Status - The U.S. housing market has been in a "high price, low transaction" state for about two years, with no effective decline in interest rates. The expectation of rate cuts has diminished, increasing the risk of stagflation, which may further distance the market from the hoped-for recovery through lower rates. If future mortgage rates remain high, it could lead to a situation markedly different from the past 40 years of declining rates [3][4]. Asset Price Trends - If the U.S. economy weakens, there may be downward pressure on housing prices. Since 2022, there has been no real price increase, but cumulative real price growth since 2020 exceeds 25%, leading to a "housing affordability crisis." Unlike 2008, the current market has a supply shortage, and the leverage ratios of households and businesses are not excessively high, suggesting limited probability for significant price adjustments [4][5]. Certainties and Uncertainties - The primary certainty lies in the basic supply-demand dynamics, indicating a need for housing replenishment. However, uncertainties stem from policy impacts, such as immigration and tariff policies, which could affect housing costs. The potential for demand-side support policies to address affordability issues is also uncertain. The recovery in transaction volume is expected to occur eventually, but it hinges on price adjustments, with 2025 possibly providing new insights [5][19]. 2024 Market Review - The U.S. housing market in 2024 exhibited a "high price, low transaction" pattern, with new home prices slightly easing and second-hand home prices rising. New home sales totaled 690,000 units, up 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales were 3.67 million units, down 0.1%. The overall market remains sluggish due to limited effective interest rate reductions and persistent high housing prices, resulting in a slight improvement in affordability indices [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of single-family homes increased by 7% in 2024, while the confidence index among developers remained below the neutral level, indicating caution. Multi-family housing supply reached a historical peak, with strong rental demand. The overall housing inventory remains low, with a months' supply of about 4 months, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [7][16]. Future Demand and Supply Outlook - Potential pent-up housing demand is estimated between 2.15 million and 4.55 million units. First-time homebuyers are under significant pressure, with their proportion at a record low. The supply of second-hand homes is expected to gradually increase, but the pace may be slow due to the "rate lock" effect, where many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell due to low mortgage rates [14][16]. Investment Opportunities in the Housing Sector - The U.S. housing industry can be segmented into building products, distributors, home improvement retail, developers, and real estate brokers. Current valuations across these sectors are below historical averages, with developers showing the most significant deviation. Short-term profitability for developers may be pressured, but opportunities may arise from fluctuations in interest rates and the gradual recovery of the renovation market linked to second-hand home sales [24][25][27]. Risks and Challenges - Tariff policies pose a significant risk to building products and distributors, potentially increasing construction costs. The real estate brokerage sector may benefit from increased second-hand home supply, but commission uncertainties could limit income growth [28][29].