中泰资管天团 | 马潇：对近期债市调整进度的一些思考

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is attributed to three main factors: excessive expectations for monetary easing, insufficient liquidity post-Spring Festival, and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect leading to capital outflow from bonds to stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The market's prior strong expectations for interest rate cuts led to an overextension in bond prices, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 1.95% to a low of 1.5958%, a decrease of 35 basis points [1]. - Post-Spring Festival, liquidity did not loosen as anticipated, with the central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing long-term interest rate risks, resulting in reduced capital outflow and increased pressure on the bond market [2]. - The rise in equity markets, particularly in technology stocks, has increased investor risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, creating a negative correlation between the Hang Seng Technology Index and 30-year government bond futures [2]. Group 2: Current Bond Market Status - The current yield of 1.9% on the 10-year government bond reflects a reasonable expectation of a 10 basis point rate cut for the year, with the MLF policy rate at 2.0% still serving as a significant anchor for the bond market [4]. - The yield has corrected significantly from previous overextensions, returning to levels seen before the central economic work conference, indicating that the adjustment has largely addressed prior excesses [4]. - The adjustment in the 10-year government bond yield has approached the maximum correction seen in previous cycles, with a recovery of 30 basis points from its low, suggesting limited room for further declines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic logic of transitioning between old and new growth drivers and supply-demand imbalances remains, with uncertainties surrounding traditional economic recovery and external factors like tariffs and social financing data [8]. - From an asset allocation perspective, bonds provide stable cash flow over the long term, making them a valuable asset class for investors, particularly in the context of risk-averse strategies [8].