研客专栏 | 硅铁及锰硅价差逻辑演绎复盘

Core Viewpoint - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon is primarily influenced by cost and supply-demand changes, with significant price movements often triggered by cost variations since the futures market was established [2][30]. Group 1: Cost Changes - Cost changes predominantly drive price spread variations, often leading to extreme market conditions. Historical data shows that major price movements are frequently linked to manganese ore and coal-related costs, with manganese ore being particularly volatile due to high import dependence and various uncontrollable factors [3][31]. - The cost structure for silicon iron is mainly composed of electricity (50%-60%), coal (15%-25%), and other materials (10%-15%), while for ferrosilicon, manganese ore constitutes 55%-60% of the cost, followed by electricity (20%-35%) [7][10]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Supply-demand fluctuations generally result in smaller price movements compared to cost changes. In recent years, the supply side has become more self-regulated, reducing the impact of policy-driven supply constraints on price spreads [4][32]. - The demand for ferrosilicon is significantly higher in steel production (over 90%) compared to silicon iron (60%-70%), which affects the price spread based on inventory levels and demand strength [10][11]. Group 3: Price Spread Evolution - The evolution of the price spread has matured over time, with trading becoming more timely and efficient since the futures market for silicon iron and ferrosilicon was launched in 2014. The price spread has transitioned from being lagged by spot prices to being actively traded [5][33]. - The historical price spread has undergone significant changes, particularly post-2020, where the price of silicon iron began to exceed that of ferrosilicon due to various factors including energy policies and production constraints [12][26]. Group 4: Historical Price Spread Review - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon has experienced various phases influenced by cost, demand, and supply dynamics. For instance, from 2015 to 2016, the price spread was primarily driven by cost changes and environmental regulations affecting supply [14][19]. - In 2021, the price spread saw a significant shift due to policy impacts, with silicon iron prices reaching historical highs while ferrosilicon prices lagged, leading to an expanded price spread [26][27]. Group 5: Recent Trends and Outlook - Since 2022, the price volatility of silicon iron and ferrosilicon has narrowed, returning to a cost-driven pricing logic. The price spread is expected to continue its downward trend into 2023, influenced by easing energy prices and high inventory levels [28][29].