美联储，突然“爆雷”！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve reported an operational loss of $776 million for the year 2024, primarily attributed to aggressive interest rate hikes from 2022 to 2023 [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The Federal Reserve's operational loss for 2024 reached $776 million (approximately 56 billion RMB), marking the second consecutive year of significant losses, following a loss of $11.45 billion in 2023 [4]. - The losses stem from the Fed's economic support during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and subsequent rate hikes to combat high inflation, raising the benchmark interest rate from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% [5][6]. Asset and Liability Management - The Fed's balance sheet includes assets such as government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, generating income similar to other investors. Liabilities consist of bank reserves at the Fed, for which interest must be paid [6]. - Since 2022, the Fed has continuously raised interest rates, increasing the interest paid on bank reserves. By September 2022, the interest paid exceeded the income from its securities portfolio, leading to substantial operational losses [7]. Interest Rate Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the Fed held $6.8 trillion in securities with a weighted average yield of 2.6%, while paying an interest rate of 4.4% on $3.4 trillion in reserves [8]. - The Fed's operational losses do not affect its ability to conduct monetary policy, as profit generation is not its primary goal; rather, it aims to maintain stable inflation and a healthy labor market [9][13]. Future Profitability Outlook - The timeline for the Fed to return to profitability depends on when the benchmark interest rate falls below the average yield of its securities and other assets. Predictions indicate continued losses if short-term rates remain above 4% [15]. - The Fed decided to maintain the short-term federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its March meeting, citing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [16]. Deferred Assets - Since 2022, the Fed has established an internal account called "deferred assets." When the Fed returns to profitability, it will first use surplus earnings to repay these deferred assets before resuming payments to the Treasury [11]. - The deferred assets grew from $1.33 trillion in 2023 to nearly $2.16 trillion in 2024, indicating ongoing operational losses [12].