滴滴：国内熟透了还得防，海外故事慢慢讲？

Core Insights - Didi's domestic ride-hailing GTV reached 78.4 billion in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, indicating a solidified leading position in the domestic market [1][8] - The company's revenue from domestic ride-hailing was 47.4 billion, growing 5.6% year-on-year, but lagging behind GTV growth by approximately 9% [2][13] - International business GTV grew by 16% year-on-year, with a notable 32% growth when excluding currency exchange impacts [3][11] Domestic Business Performance - Domestic ride-hailing orders increased by 10.8% year-on-year, reflecting stable growth in business volume [1][8] - The average customer price for domestic services declined by 1.4%, indicating a trend of price competition in the market [10] - Didi's platform sales growth outpaced GTV and revenue growth, suggesting a decrease in driver commission as a percentage of GTV [2][14] International Business Insights - International revenue grew by 35% to 3.01 billion, continuing to outperform GTV growth [3][15] - The international business's platform revenue increased by 22%, indicating strong growth in financial-related income [3][15] - Despite a widening loss of 710 million in the international segment, the loss rate relative to GTV decreased compared to the previous year [4][17] Profitability and Cost Analysis - Adjusted EBITA for the domestic segment was 2.18 billion, down from the previous quarter, with a slight decrease in the profit margin [4][16] - The overall adjusted EBITA for Didi was only 320 million, significantly lower than the previous quarter's 1.74 billion, raising concerns about profitability trends [4][17] - Operating expenses increased both in absolute terms and as a percentage of revenue, suggesting a potential shift towards increased market investment [4][18] Future Outlook - The company expects adjusted EBITA for domestic operations to reach 12 billion for the fiscal year 2025, with no upward revision in guidance [6] - Current stock price faces resistance around $5, with a valuation of approximately 15x based on projected domestic EBITA [6] - To attract investor interest and drive market capitalization, Didi needs to demonstrate profit release from domestic operations or significant growth in international business [6]