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钴价持续大涨 电池市场生变？
高工锂电·2025-03-23 11:25

Core Viewpoint - The surge in cobalt prices is driven by inventory consumption and supply chain disruptions due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban on cobalt for four months [2][6]. Cobalt Price Surge - Following the export ban, cobalt prices skyrocketed from 162,000 CNY/ton to over 260,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of over 60% within 20 trading days [2]. - Historical price trends indicate that cobalt prices typically range between 200,000 to 300,000 CNY/ton, with potential spikes to 500,000 CNY/ton or even beyond 600,000 CNY/ton due to supply chain instability [2]. Demand and Application - Cobalt's primary application is in batteries, with the electric vehicle sector accounting for 45% of global cobalt demand and consumer electronics for 26% [3]. - The volatility in cobalt prices directly impacts the cost of batteries for electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with the current price fluctuations still in the early stages of development [3]. Impact on Battery Costs - The cost of battery materials, particularly for ternary precursors and lithium cobalt oxide, has significantly increased, with price hikes of 30% for 523-type precursors, 28% for 622-type, and 8% for 811-type precursors [4]. - The rise in cobalt prices is expected to increase the cost of ternary battery cells by approximately 5%, which may lead to a 2% increase in the final price of electric vehicles [5]. Market Dynamics - The market currently lacks clear expectations for cobalt price trends, with recent price fluctuations indicating a state of market speculation [6]. - In 2024, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons, a 22% increase, while demand growth for lithium batteries and consumer batteries is expected to be limited, leading to a potential surplus of over 50,000 tons [6]. Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of 2024, China's cobalt raw material inventory is approximately 53,000 tons, corresponding to a three-month consumption volume, indicating a tight inventory situation [7]. - The export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo may lead to a shift in cobalt imports to Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, which is expected to see an 80% increase in cobalt production to 32,000 tons in 2024 [7].