中金：消费股有机会吗?

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector has shown slight growth in early 2025, outperforming the overall market, with a 0.5% increase in the consumer index and a 1.4% increase in the broader consumer index, while the CSI 300 index has slightly declined by 0.5% [1][2]. Policy Support - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, doubling last year's amount [2][3]. - A comprehensive action plan has been introduced, outlining 30 key tasks across eight areas to stimulate consumption growth, emphasizing demand-side support [2][3]. Market Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sectors like home appliances and automobiles, with over 940 million consumers participating in the program, leading to the purchase of over 12 million appliances [3][4]. - Emerging consumption trends in areas such as parenting, aging population, and winter sports are gaining attention due to supportive policies [3]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector's valuation remains historically low, with the consumer index PE (TTM) at 12.4x, below historical averages, indicating potential for recovery [4][5]. - Key sectors such as retail, home appliances, and food and beverage are highlighted as having significant valuation upside, with leading companies in these areas also showing low valuations [4]. Capital Market Dynamics - The potential return of foreign capital could benefit leading consumer companies, as foreign investment in China has decreased significantly over the past three years, with a shift towards rebalancing portfolios [5][6]. - The consumer sector, particularly leading firms, is expected to gain from foreign capital inflows due to their traditional attractiveness to foreign investors [5]. Economic Outlook - Current economic recovery appears moderate, with retail sales growth at 4% year-on-year for January-February, indicating room for improvement in consumer income and spending capacity [6]. - Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing remains high, but real estate investment continues to decline, affecting related consumer sectors [6]. Structural Opportunities - The focus on structural opportunities in the consumer sector is emphasized, with recommendations for investors to consider specific companies across various sub-sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, and retail [6].