【十大券商一周策略】季节性分歧不改牛市趋势！科技仍是市场主线

Group 1 - The first key point is the identification of two critical time points in the market: the first in early April related to external risks and the second around mid-year when the economic and policy cycles of China and the US may align again [1] - The second key point highlights that the technology sector, due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts, is expected to perform well in April and May [1] - The third key point discusses the potential for a fourth round of economic stimulus in China due to weakening US economic conditions and increased tariff pressures, which could lead to a significant market style shift [1] Group 2 - The fundamental performance of major Chinese companies listed in the MSCI index indicates that technology firms are exceeding profit expectations, which may support the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The report suggests that private sector-led AI investments are likely to accelerate, bolstering domestic macro demand [2] - Recent economic data shows positive signals in domestic fundamentals, with signs of stabilization in consumption [2] Group 3 - The changing liquidity environment is expected to lead to a rebalancing of market styles, focusing on sectors with stable or improving performance and free cash flow [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain security amid escalating trade conflicts, indicating a shift from tariff-based issues to supply chain concerns [3] Group 4 - The report notes that foreign capital still dominates the stock structure in Hong Kong, but the marginal pricing power of southbound funds is increasing, particularly in consumer and dividend sectors [4] - It highlights that technology and financial sectors still hold significant pricing power among foreign investors [4] Group 5 - The report discusses the impact of recent market volatility on risk appetite, with a focus on the importance of performance verification as earnings reports approach [5][6] - It indicates that the market is entering a phase where performance becomes more critical, leading to a potential reduction in risk appetite [6] Group 6 - The upcoming earnings season is expected to bring balance among technology, consumer, and red-chip stocks, with a focus on capital expenditure acceleration as a key driver [7] - The report highlights concerns over the slowdown in US tech capital expenditure while expressing confidence in domestic tech giants [7] Group 7 - The market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with short-term capital rotation increasing, but the underlying fundamentals are expected to drive deeper market differentiation [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors supported by policy benefits and those with high valuation attractiveness [8] Group 8 - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from consumption support policies and those related to price increases in resource products [12] - It maintains a positive outlook on technology trends, particularly in AI applications and domestic substitution [12]