【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】“四月决断”的市场影响

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].