经济复苏的成色（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals in China's economic recovery, highlighting the divergence in financial, inflation, and economic data, particularly in infrastructure, real estate, and consumption sectors [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is projected to be around 5.3%, with a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 4% [2]. - CPI and PPI showed negative growth in January-February, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating weak demand [3]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 9.9% year-on-year in January-February, but high-frequency data such as black metal prices and cement shipment volumes are low [4]. - The structure of infrastructure investment is skewed towards central government projects, with significant growth in water and energy sectors, while traditional sectors like road transport are lagging [4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate recovery is characterized by uncertainty, with second-hand home transactions in major cities up by 25.9%, contrasting with a decline in new home sales [5]. - There is significant internal divergence in second-hand home sales across cities, with some cities experiencing substantial growth while others see declines [5]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by policies like "trade-in" programs, but the sustainability of this recovery is in question [11]. - Retail sales growth is being supported by a rebound in service retail, but overall consumer sentiment remains cautious due to rising unemployment rates [16]. Policy Implications - The government is focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, with plans for stimulus measures if external uncertainties increase [17].