美元的归途：破百的条件和时机？（民生宏观林彦）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the US dollar to face downward pressure due to long-term economic challenges and uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's policies, suggesting that the dollar index may experience a "last hurrah" before a significant decline [1][2]. Summary by Sections Short-term Economic Outlook - The US is currently experiencing a short-term rebound in market expectations, but fiscal spending has not decreased as anticipated, with a 14% year-on-year increase in spending for the first two months of the year compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The government initially planned to cut $2 trillion in spending but revised this to $1 trillion, indicating a lack of substantial fiscal tightening [1]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The US economy is on the brink of a long-term downtrend, primarily driven by an unsustainable debt cycle. The article outlines that the US economy is consumption-driven, heavily reliant on income and corporate profitability, which are influenced by financial leverage [2][3]. - The article references Ray Dalio's framework for understanding debt cycles, indicating that the US is currently in the "bubble burst stage," where debt defaults may soon occur [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is expected to face significant challenges as it navigates through the debt cycle, with the potential for a loss of government creditworthiness as it moves from a phase of balance sheet expansion to one of increasing liabilities [4]. - The article suggests that the Fed may have limited options to control debt, with financial repression (lowering interest rates) and fiscal control being the two primary paths, but both face significant hurdles [4]. Currency Dynamics - The article analyzes the factors influencing the dollar index, including real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity, and monetary policy differences between the US and Europe [4][5]. - It predicts that the dollar may breach the 100 mark this year, particularly in the second and third quarters, contingent on economic performance and inflationary pressures in the US [6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face greater inflationary pressures this year, influenced by tariffs and potential labor market imbalances, while European inflation may ease due to lower energy prices [5][6]. - The article notes that market expectations for interest rate cuts differ significantly between the US and Europe, with the Fed facing more substantial risks of easing monetary policy [6].