【基础化工】有机硅盈利持续改善，行业格局逐步优化——基础化工行业周报（20250317-0323）（赵乃迪/周家诺/胡星月）

Core Viewpoint - The peak of silicone production has passed, leading to joint production cuts by companies, resulting in a rise in product prices from the bottom [2] Group 1: Production and Capacity - Domestic silicone DMC capacity increased from 1.515 million tons/year in 2019 to 3.44 million tons/year by 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the future [2] - The only remaining new capacity is a 100,000 tons/year project by Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology, expected to be operational by June 2025 [2] - As of February 19, 2025, 1.82 million tons of silicone monomer capacity is under maintenance, indicating a significant reduction in domestic supply [2] Group 2: Price and Profitability - Silicone prices have shown a significant upward trend in 2025, with the market average price reaching 14,500 yuan/ton by March 20, 2025, an increase of 11.5% since the beginning of the year [2] - The gross profit for silicone reached 371.88 yuan/ton as of March 21, 2025, marking the first positive gross profit since the beginning of the year [2] Group 3: Demand and Market Outlook - The apparent consumption of silicone DMC in China increased from 1.21 million tons in 2020 to 1.82 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% [4] - Key application areas for silicone DMC include construction and electronics, accounting for 25% and 23% of consumption, respectively [4] - Exports of silicone DMC have grown rapidly, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2020 to 2024, while imports have declined, indicating advancements in domestic production capabilities [4] - The demand for silicone materials is expected to rise significantly due to the growth in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, which will also increase the demand for high-end silicone materials [4]