如何解读2025年1-2月经济数据︱重阳问答

Economic Overview - The economic data for January-February 2025 shows a stable start with structural highlights, including an industrial value-added growth of 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - High-tech manufacturing industry growth reached 9.1%, indicating a strong trend in China's technological manufacturing upgrade [1] - Social retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year, showing improvement compared to December 2024, driven by consumption policies and the Spring Festival [1] - Fixed asset investment growth was 4.1%, also stronger than expected, supported by preemptive fiscal measures and AI-related demand [1] - Industrial export delivery value grew by 6.2%, reflecting strong overseas demand [1] - The actual GDP growth for Q1 2025 is estimated to be around 5.3%, indicating a positive economic outlook [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector remains a major drag on the economy, exhibiting a "volume-price divergence" characteristic [2] - Real estate investment decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, although this is an improvement compared to previous periods [2] - New housing sales area dropped by 5.1% year-on-year, with sales value turning negative at -2.4% [2] - Second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities, except for first-tier cities, showed a negative trend, indicating a price drop despite increased transaction volume [2] - New construction area for real estate companies fell by 29.6%, suggesting that the recovery in the land market has not yet translated into construction activity [2] Future Outlook - The economic performance in January-February 2025 is driven by "new quality productivity cultivation and policy support," achieving a positive start [2] - The real estate sector and external trade risks remain core constraints on economic growth [2] - With stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market, along with timely interest rate cuts and increased consumer subsidies, there is potential for China to reshape its growth momentum and achieve its annual economic growth targets [2]