Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the emergence of new consumption trends driven by emotional value and the integration of supply-side innovations, highlighting a shift towards personalized and diversified consumption [2][4][10] - On the demand side, there is a significant increase in consumption focused on emotional value, with "self-pleasing" consumption projected to grow by 40.6% in 2024, and social consumption, represented by sports and entertainment goods, expected to rise by 11.1% [2][10][23] - The supply side shows a notable trend of integration across different fields, with the IP industry experiencing an average growth rate of 13.1% from 2019 to 2024, and the tourism and cultural sectors also expanding significantly [2][32][39] Group 2 - The rise of new consumption is attributed to generational changes, economic characteristics, and upgrades in consumption supply, with younger consumers (ages 18-34) being the primary drivers of emotional consumption [4][49][50] - The youth demographic is increasingly focused on emotional value due to factors such as high unemployment rates and increased work pressure, leading to a greater emphasis on self-pleasing and home-based consumption [4][61][62] - Supply-side improvements, including increased R&D investments in sectors like automotive and electrical machinery, are facilitating the intelligent upgrade of consumption offerings [4][62][68] Group 3 - Future growth potential for new consumption is reinforced by economic growth, demographic shifts, and improvements in consumption supply, with service consumption expected to rise as GDP per capita increases [6][74][83] - The trend of smaller family units and declining birth rates in developed countries is likely to further enhance new consumption demand, as seen in the U.S. and Japan [7][74][75] - The importance of "consumption-related infrastructure" is being elevated, with government spending in education, healthcare, and social security expected to support the enhancement of new consumption supply [8][102][106]
深度专题| 新消费,“新”在哪里?
申万宏源宏观·2025-03-24 10:55