研客专栏 | 江苏油脂油料调研纪要——需求不振，何去何从

Core Viewpoint - The research focuses on the oilseed industry in Jiangsu, highlighting the impact of low soybean imports and trade tensions on market dynamics, particularly for soybean meal and oil [3][5]. Group 1: Soybean Market Insights - In Q1, oil mills had fewer soybean purchases due to lower-than-average soybean harvests in Brazil, leading to lower domestic soybean arrivals [3][6]. - The expected peak for soybean arrivals is late April, with some companies anticipating a short-term bullish trend for soybean meal in early April [3][6]. - Oil mills generally import soybeans via Zhoushan port, with a customs clearance time of about 20-25 days [3][6]. Group 2: Canola Market Dynamics - Trade tensions between China and Canada have altered the export outlook for Canadian canola, while U.S.-Canada relations also significantly affect canola and meal exports [3][6]. - Russian canola faces export tariffs, and low inventory levels have led to a reluctance among farmers to sell, impacting market prices [3][6]. Group 3: Oil Mill Operations - The oil mills in the region have varying capacities, with some processing up to 10,000 tons of soybeans daily, and they face seasonal shutdowns for maintenance [11][22]. - The expected soybean processing volume for April to June is projected to be high, with a potential rebound in prices anticipated in June and July [16][20]. Group 4: Sales and Inventory Trends - Sales of soybean meal and oil are currently slow, with inventory levels being closely monitored due to fluctuating demand from feed mills [20][28]. - The market is seeing a cautious approach to purchasing, with many companies preferring to wait for clearer signals before committing to large orders [36][38]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Companies express a generally optimistic long-term view on the agricultural sector, anticipating potential price increases in the coming months [24][30]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while short-term pressures exist, the market may stabilize and improve as supply chain issues are resolved [45].