LSEG年度碳市场报告 | 2024全球碳市场交易量同比大增 未来政策不确定性仍存

Core Insights - The global carbon market experienced a significant rebound in trading volume, increasing by 24% compared to the stagnation in 2023, although the transaction value only slightly rose by 0.3%, indicating a decoupling between trading volume and transaction prices [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The EU carbon market remains dominant, accounting for 85% of the total transaction value in major global carbon markets, but its transaction value decreased by 2% year-on-year due to lower carbon prices influenced by falling natural gas prices [3]. - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, along with increased winter risk premiums, led to heightened carbon price volatility in the fourth quarter of the previous year [3]. - In the U.S., the California-Quebec market initially performed well but later faced volatility due to policy uncertainties, while the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) saw rising auction demand and prices [3]. Group 2: Regional Highlights - New Zealand's carbon market saw a remarkable trading volume increase of over 300% year-on-year, attributed to the resumption of auctions and heightened market activity, with an average carbon price of approximately NZD 64 per ton [4]. - China's national carbon market entered its third compliance period in 2024, with increased market activity and improved policies, including the expansion of mandatory carbon markets to cover industries like steel and cement [6]. - Japan's Tokyo Stock Exchange carbon credit market experienced strong growth since its launch in October 2023, with plans to transition to a mandatory carbon market by April 2026 [6]. Group 3: Voluntary Carbon Market Challenges - The voluntary carbon market faced significant challenges in 2024, with both prices and trading volumes plummeting; GEO contracts fell by 75%, reaching a historical low price of 15 cents [7]. - Higher-quality emission reductions, such as those meeting CORSIA Phase 1 requirements, maintained relatively stable prices, averaging USD 15.50 per ton [7]. - The outlook for 2025 appears optimistic, contingent on governance reforms and enhanced connections with compliance markets, with efforts underway to improve the credibility of the voluntary carbon market [7].