Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, while the Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to 0.25%, marking a reversal in their interest rate positions for the first time in over two and a half years [1][2] - The change in interest rates is expected to weaken "yen carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, thus reducing the pressure on the yen's depreciation [1][2] - As of March 21, the yen was trading around 149 yen to the dollar, with fewer expectations of one-sided depreciation, reflecting the shift in Japan's policy stance [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's decision to cut rates is attributed to decreasing inflationary pressures, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates have been lowered [2] - The reversal in interest rates has made it more challenging for carry trades, which previously relied on Japan's low rates, to continue, potentially stabilizing the yen [2][3] - Speculation has arisen regarding the Swiss National Bank's potential halt in rate cuts, while strong sentiment exists that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates, widening the policy rate gap between the two countries [3] Group 3 - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that speculative net short positions in the yen reached their highest level since June 2007, reflecting the dynamics of yen carry trades [3] - Market analysts predict that if exchange rate volatility remains low, the Swiss franc may become a more attractive currency for carry trades, diminishing the dominance of yen carry trades [4] - Despite the potential for reduced selling pressure on the yen, actual interest rates remain significantly negative, complicating expectations for yen appreciation [4]
日本摆脱“世界最低利率”,日元汇率怎么走?
日经中文网·2025-03-25 03:23