供应过剩何时能逆转？碳酸锂期货再创新低，矿企纷纷亏损

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in lithium carbonate futures has raised concerns, as it has hit a new low since its listing, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous drop in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to severe supply-demand contradictions, with many lithium mining companies facing operational losses due to cost overruns [2][8]. - As of March 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate fell below 75,000 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline of 2.58% [4]. - The production costs for lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica are reported at 81,612 yuan/ton and 97,339 yuan/ton respectively, with both showing negative profit margins [4]. Price Trends - The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 76,200 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the beginning of the month [5]. - The market is experiencing a significant increase in inventory, with total market inventory rising by 3,000 tons to 126,000 tons [10]. Company Performance - Companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium have reported substantial losses, with Shengxin Lithium's revenue dropping by 42.38% year-on-year to 4.581 billion yuan and a net loss of 622 million yuan [7]. - Tianqi Lithium is expected to report a net loss between 7.1 billion to 8.2 billion yuan for 2024, marking its worst performance since its listing in 2010 [7]. Future Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with potential price stabilization around the cost support level of 70,000 yuan/ton if demand improves [8][10]. - Some high-cost lithium salt plants have begun to reduce production, but the overall domestic output remains high, complicating the supply situation [10].