张瑜：三视角判断债券收益率的调整幅度

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the short-term interbank interest rate, DR007, is expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% in the near future, with limited upward or downward potential due to the current monetary policy stance and the behavior of resident deposits [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Perspective - The central bank's monetary policy is currently in a tight balance, influenced by the release of resident deposits, which has reduced the necessity for further monetary easing [4][6]. - The upward potential for interest rates is constrained by the temporary reverse repurchase agreement rate cap set at 2.0% [6][22]. - The current situation indicates that the need for the central bank to increase liquidity is decreasing as resident deposits transition from accumulation to release [6][21]. Group 2: Resident Deposits and Bond Yield Comparison - The yields on three-year and five-year government bonds are currently higher than the corresponding fixed deposit rates offered by major banks, indicating an attractive opportunity for residents to invest in bonds [7][25]. - As of the end of 2024, the three-year government bond yield is approximately 1.25%, and the five-year yield is about 1.49%, both lower than the fixed deposit rates, suggesting that bond returns are primarily driven by capital gains rather than interest income [25][27]. - Recent adjustments in the bond market show that as of March 21, 2025, the three-year and five-year government bond yields have risen to 1.64% and 1.70%, respectively, indicating a shift in attractiveness towards bonds compared to fixed deposits [25][27]. Group 3: Banking System and Bond Yield Relationship - The inversion between DR007 and the ten-year government bond yield has largely ended, suggesting that the most rapid adjustments in bond yields may have already occurred [8][29]. - However, the one-year interbank deposit rate remains higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating that banks are still in a phase of needing to secure liabilities [8][29]. - The current financial environment suggests that as long as the one-year interbank deposit rate exceeds the ten-year government bond yield, the optimal window for banks to invest in ten-year government bonds has not yet arrived [8][29].