海外政策｜特朗普关税是否存在预期差？

Core Viewpoint - April is expected to be a critical time for the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, with the results of the "America First Trade Policy Memorandum" and the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" being key milestones [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Policy Implementation - The ideal policy path for Trump involves quickly implementing negative policies in the short term while maintaining a high tolerance for their side effects, followed by a gradual reduction of shocks and the introduction of positive policies like tax cuts to ensure economic recovery in Q2 and a strong return by year-end [2][5] - The "reciprocal tariffs" concept aims to impose tariffs on U.S. imports that match the tariffs imposed by trading partners on U.S. exports, intending to reduce trade discrimination and trade deficits [3][4] Group 2: Trade Negotiations with China - The tariffs imposed on China, including the 20% tariffs, are seen as extensions of domestic U.S. issues, with the April 1 results of the trade memorandum indicating the formation of Trump's negotiation strategy with China [4][5] - Recent preliminary contacts between the U.S. and China suggest that substantive negotiations may begin after April, although the coordination challenges may be greater than during Trump's previous term [4][5] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market has already priced in the potential disturbances from Trump's return to power, and domestic macro and industrial policies are prepared for these risks, with various measures expected to accelerate implementation to mitigate risks [5]