【招银研究|资本市场专题】从央行购金和投资需求看全球黄金需求变化

Core Viewpoint - The global demand for gold is projected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven primarily by central bank purchases and investment demand, despite a slight decrease in central bank purchases compared to previous years [2][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Since 2022, central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, primarily led by emerging market central banks, with purchases doubling from around 500 tons to over 1,000 tons, contributing to a rise in gold prices [4][5]. - The increase in gold purchases is not uniform across all central banks; emerging markets like Poland, Turkey, China, Egypt, and India have been the main buyers, while some developed countries have sold gold [7]. - In 2024, central bank purchases are expected to slightly decrease but remain above 1,000 tons, influenced by various factors including market conditions and gold prices [8][16]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold investment demand is negatively correlated with U.S. real interest rates; lower real rates typically lead to higher investment in gold [9][10]. - After a peak in 2020, gold investment demand fell significantly due to rising real interest rates, but is expected to see a slight rebound in 2024 as the Federal Reserve signals a shift towards lower rates [13][18]. - Investment demand varies by region, with Asian markets showing net inflows into gold ETFs, while European and North American markets have experienced outflows [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Central bank purchases may slow down in the short term but are expected to remain in a long-term net buying cycle, influenced by geopolitical risks and market conditions [16][17]. - Investment demand is unlikely to see a significant rebound due to potential inflationary pressures from U.S. policies and high gold prices, which may suppress demand [18][19]. - Overall, while gold demand may not exceed 2024 levels, it is expected to remain high, with prices experiencing volatility but maintaining a long-term bullish trend [20][21].