热点思考|应对低生育：海外经验与我国特征 —— “应对低生育”系列二

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue, emphasizing the need for systematic support measures to encourage childbirth [1]. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare support, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD data indicates that timely introduction of financial support and parental leave can significantly impact total fertility rates and employment among women of childbearing age [31][43]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their fertility rates through comprehensive support systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to delayed and insufficient policy measures [43][60]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, partly due to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age and a trend towards later marriages and childbirth [3][67]. - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67]. - The increasing flow of population, influenced by the household registration system and public service disparities, has also contributed to a decline in birth intentions among the mobile population [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with cities like Hohhot offering substantial financial support for families with children [5]. - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5]. - Beyond cash subsidies, a comprehensive support system addressing employment, education, and healthcare is essential for improving birth rates [5][96].