中信证券研究·2025-03-26 00:13Group 1: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market since the beginning of the year, while the A-share market remains volatile. Net inflows from southbound funds have approached 400 billion HKD year-to-date [1] - It is suggested that a reasonable allocation of Hong Kong stocks in Chinese equity assets should be between 40%-50%, indicating significant room for institutional investors, especially public funds, to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Strategy - Recent shifts in Trump's tariff policy suggest a potential easing, with indications of a "Trump Put" emerging. The Fed's stance may also be shifting towards a more accommodative policy, which could pave the way for future rate cuts [3] - Despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 remaining at relatively high valuations, there has been a noticeable contraction since mid-February. The market may have already priced in uncertainties related to Trump's policies, and a technical rebound in tech stocks is anticipated [3] - Mid-term concerns include the potential escalation of global trade tensions, the evolution of the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals, and the upcoming fiscal X-date, which could disrupt the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Banking and Financial Products - The scale of China's banking wealth management market has been expanding, with various distribution channels evolving. The introduction of the "Commercial Bank Agency Sales Business Management Measures" marks a new era of regulation in bank sales [5] - The competition in the banking wealth management sector is expected to focus on both "channel supremacy" and "product supremacy" [5] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The liquidity landscape has undergone significant changes since the beginning of the year, attributed to the central bank's efforts to build a differentiated liquidity management system. A "tight balance" in the funding environment is expected to persist [7] - With a more relaxed central bank stance, the likelihood of long-term bond yields declining has improved, although short-term rates may remain volatile without substantial easing [7] Group 5: Fiscal Data and Economic Indicators - National fiscal revenue growth has declined, with major tax categories like VAT and corporate income tax showing negative growth, indicating ongoing pressure on corporate operations. Fiscal expenditures have been progressing rapidly, particularly in social security and employment [10] - The government fund revenue continues to decline significantly, while expenditures have seen slight growth, suggesting that policies may be gearing up for potential disturbances related to tariffs [10] Group 6: Emerging Industries - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to anticipated policy signals and a significant order concentration expected in the near term. The overlap with the nuclear power and military materials sectors is also noted [12] - In the energy storage sector, a recent 500 billion Euro fiscal spending bill in Germany, which includes 100 billion Euros for climate and transformation funds, is expected to catalyze a recovery cycle in the European energy storage market, benefiting domestic companies [13]