债市启明｜流动性格局变化的逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity landscape has undergone significant adjustments since the beginning of the year, primarily due to the central bank's ongoing efforts to construct and refine a differentiated liquidity management system, leading to an expected "tight balance" in the funding environment moving forward [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank's Liquidity Management - The central bank's monetary policy continues to follow a logic of dynamic balance among stabilizing the exchange rate, preventing risks, and promoting economic growth, maintaining an "appropriate easing" tone [2][3]. - The central bank is expected to use various monetary policy tools strategically, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic recovery and manage liquidity effectively [3]. Group 2: Banking Sector Challenges - The banking sector faces significant pressure on liabilities, particularly regarding long-term funding outflows, which is reflected in the divergence of funding rates and interbank certificate of deposit issuance rates [4]. - The improvement in the banking system's lending capacity is crucial for determining the recovery of the funding environment, with a focus on the lending indicators of joint-stock banks being more indicative than those of state-owned banks [4]. Group 3: April Liquidity Gap Observations - The liquidity gap in April is expected to widen compared to March, with government debt supply pressures remaining, and an estimated net financing of approximately 6 trillion yuan from government bonds [5]. - The fiscal revenue and expenditure gap for April is projected to be around 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing liquidity pressures despite a slight return of M0 [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The liquidity gap is anticipated to continue exerting pressure in the short term, while the central bank's easing stance may improve the odds of declining long-term bond rates [6].