金价年内涨至3500美元？

Core Viewpoint - Major financial institutions globally are raising their gold price forecasts for the year, with many predicting prices around $3000 to $3200 per ounce, and some even suggesting a potential rise to $3500 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Macquarie Group believes there is potential for gold prices to rise to $3500 due to risks associated with the Trump administration and geopolitical tensions [1]. - UBS has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3200, citing ongoing policy risks and trade tensions as factors driving demand for safe assets like gold [2]. - Goldman Sachs has increased its basic year-end forecast from $2890 to $3100, suggesting that if uncertainties remain high, prices could reach $3300 [2]. - Macquarie Group has set the average gold price for July to September at $3150, indicating that without signs of improvement in the U.S. fiscal deficit, prices may attempt to reach $3500 [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risks are intensifying, particularly with renewed military actions in the Gaza Strip and U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, contributing to the demand for gold [2]. - The actions of the U.S. government to strengthen tariffs and restructure international relations are raising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, which are driving gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks have been increasing their gold purchases at record levels, with an annual increase of 1000 tons over the past three years, which is a significant factor pushing gold prices to historical highs [3]. - UBS predicts that central bank purchases could reach around 1000 tons again by 2025, maintaining structural demand for gold [3]. Group 4: Cautious Outlook - Some analysts express caution, suggesting that if trade tensions do not escalate, gold prices may struggle to maintain upward momentum in the second half of the year [5]. - If the theme of U.S. tariff risks becomes outdated, market focus may shift to U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to gold sell-offs if expectations for interest rate cuts diminish [5].