Core Viewpoint - The article highlights increasing concerns over the supply of battery metals, particularly nickel and cobalt, due to tightening policies in key producing countries like Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may disrupt the global electric vehicle supply chain [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Supply Concerns - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has been signaling tighter control over nickel resources since 2025, with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources indicating a potential reduction in mining quotas to protect high-grade nickel reserves [1][2]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association approved a mining quota of 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year, but the government is reviewing this to prevent resource depletion [1][2]. - The planned increase in mining and processing costs includes raising the nickel mining tax rate from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19%, which could elevate operational costs for mining companies and ultimately increase nickel prices [1][2]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanisms and Market Impact - Indonesia is adjusting the calculation frequency of the metal mineral benchmark price (HPM) from monthly to twice a month to better reflect market values and capture price fluctuations, particularly during price increases [2]. - As of March 24, nickel prices in Indonesia have been rising, with a reported supply-demand gap of approximately 5,000 tons for battery-grade nickel sulfate in Q1 [2]. - The tightening supply from Indonesia is compounded by the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to manage global cobalt supply and prices amid its export ban [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - The Philippines has also decided to halt new mining permits in key nickel-producing areas and may soon pass a bill to ban raw ore exports, aiming to develop its downstream processing industry [3]. - The increasing nationalism among resource-rich countries is driven by the desire to capitalize on the booming demand for electric vehicles, which has led to significant price volatility for lithium, cobalt, and nickel [3]. - The reliance on Indonesian MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) for cobalt supply is creating new uncertainties regarding supply stability and costs, impacting the already high cobalt prices faced by ternary material producers [4]. Group 4: Production and Technological Implications - The high raw material costs are suppressing the purchasing willingness of downstream nickel sulfate manufacturers, leading to a reduction in production rates, with China's nickel sulfate production capacity operating at less than 50% as of March [4]. - Although low-cobalt strategies may alleviate some pressure on cobalt prices, the high-nickel route is crucial for enhancing the energy density of ternary batteries, which currently account for 40-50% of the ternary materials market [4]. - The tightening nickel supply could introduce uncertainties during a critical period for cost reduction and market penetration of next-generation battery technologies [4].
钴价未平 镍供应又迎收紧
高工锂电·2025-03-26 10:23