申势月谈｜3月份“申势月谈”月度观点分析会内容概要（北京西路整理）

Market Overview - The current policy environment aligns with market expectations, with clear measures in response to issues arising from the US-China trade war, leading to strong internal upward momentum and improved market confidence and profit expectations [2][4] - The spring market rally is ongoing, driven by increased capital expenditure in the IT sector and proactive investments in technology [2] Asset Allocation - A bullish outlook on the stock market, particularly on the Hang Seng Tech Index, with every pullback seen as an opportunity to increase positions; the index has reached new highs [3] - A moderate overweight in equity assets and a slight underweight in bond assets is recommended, with a focus on semiconductor-related investments [3] Hong Kong Stock Market - In February, the Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising nearly 18%, marking a three-year high, and the Hang Seng Index increasing over 13% [4] - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market totaled approximately 143 billion yuan in February, with a cumulative net inflow of 261.5 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, accounting for 82% of the expected total for the year [4][5] - The market may experience high volatility in March due to various factors, including the acceleration of US-China tariff processes and the upcoming policy discussions during the National People's Congress [5] ETF Insights - The focus remains on technology sectors, with attention to rotation opportunities in underperforming sectors; the Hang Seng Tech Index is highlighted as a key indicator for Chinese tech assets [6] Industry Analysis - The lithium battery industry is experiencing solid growth in demand, with overseas demand potentially exceeding expectations; new technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries are noteworthy [7] - The brokerage industry is positively correlated with market activity, benefiting from A-share trading volumes between 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion yuan, which supports brokerage revenues and margin financing [7] - The defense and military industry is seeing a gradual improvement in fundamentals, with orders increasing and the low-altitude economy being emphasized in policy discussions [7] New Stock Insights - The average initial public offering (IPO) valuation has dropped to a low point, with 80% of new stocks reaching their highest price on the first trading day; in February, only five new stocks were issued, raising a total of 3.9 billion yuan [7] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for new stocks has fallen to 17 times, representing a 48% discount compared to comparable companies, with the discount widening by 16.4% [7]