李迅雷专栏 | 促消费2025：社零不能再低于GDP增速

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance both consumption capacity and willingness [10][19]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Consumption - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Consumption capacity is primarily affected by income, assets, and debt, while consumption willingness is influenced by economic expectations, social security systems, and available time for consumption [7][10]. - The current debt pressure on residents is significant, with the ratio of debt repayment to disposable income at 12.4% in Q3 2024, higher than in some developed economies [7]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption through income increases, reduced burdens, high-quality supply, and improved consumption environments, with 30 key tasks across eight areas [10][19]. - The government plans to increase public consumption significantly, as a 1% increase in public consumption can lead to a 0.4% rise in private consumption over the long term [13][19]. Group 3: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - The plan focuses on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, with measures including employment support and minimum wage adjustments [11][20]. - There is a specific emphasis on providing living allowances for recent graduates who have not yet found employment, recognizing their high marginal propensity to consume [21]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Projections - In 2024, the growth rate of social retail sales is projected to be only 3.5%, with expectations to increase to over 5% due to enhanced fiscal spending [3][19]. - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP in 2023, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [6][19]. Group 5: Financial Support Mechanisms - The plan introduces fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, marking a shift in focus from corporate to individual support, which could stimulate consumer spending [16][22]. - The government aims to balance "old-for-new" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups to ensure equitable access to consumption incentives [19][20].