三大央行按兵不动，关税不确定性加大——全球货币转向跟踪第7期

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint indicates that major central banks are maintaining their current interest rates amidst increasing uncertainty regarding tariffs, with only the European Central Bank (ECB) implementing a rate cut [2][14] - In the observation period from February 8 to March 23, 2025, among 26 major economies, 7 experienced rate cuts and 1 an increase, while the US, Japan, and the UK kept rates unchanged [2][19] - The Federal Reserve maintained its target federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting a cautious stance due to heightened economic uncertainty [13][19] Global Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, with market predictions for a potential cut in May reaching around 50% due to economic indicators falling short of expectations [3][19] - Following the release of better-than-expected employment and inflation data in mid-March, the likelihood of a rate cut in May dropped to approximately 20% [3][19] - The European and UK rate cut expectations remain relatively stable, with a 60% probability of a cut in the Eurozone by April 2025 [19] China's Interest Rate Position - China's real interest rates rebounded from 2.2% in January to a range of 3%-3.1% in February-March 2025, positioning it among the highest globally [4][28] - The increase in real interest rates is attributed to the seasonal effects of inflation dissipating post-Spring Festival [4][28] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve decided to slow down its balance sheet reduction, primarily due to disturbances in the Treasury General Account (TGA) caused by the debt ceiling issue [5][33] - As of March 19, 2025, the Fed's reserve balance expanded by approximately $68.3 billion, despite a total balance sheet reduction of $2.04 trillion [5][34] - The liquidity in the repurchase market has returned to a more relaxed state, with the SOFR-EFFR spread turning negative, indicating improved liquidity conditions [8][41] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the US Treasury market has shown increased volatility, but the market remains stable without significant liquidity risks [10][47] - The Libor-OIS spread has widened, indicating a slight increase in liquidity premium, although it has not reached alarming levels [11][50] - Credit risk premiums have seen a slight increase since March 2025, influenced by rising geopolitical uncertainties and tariff concerns [12][53]