中信证券研究·2025-03-27 00:21Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal budget reflects low revenue growth targets due to domestic and international pressures, while maintaining high expenditure levels to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Targets - For the first budget, the 2025 general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2]. - The share of spending on livelihood and technology in the general public budget has increased, with livelihood spending accounting for 37.1% and technology spending reaching a historical high of 4.2% [2]. - For the second budget, the growth target for government fund revenue is 0.7%, while expenditure growth is set to increase to 23.1%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2]. Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The estimated broad fiscal deficit for 2025 is approximately 11.4 trillion, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of about 8.0%, marking the highest level historically [3]. - The implied nominal GDP for 2025 is calculated to be 141.5 trillion, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% [3]. Recent Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Situation - In January-February, general public budget revenue declined, primarily due to negative growth in tax revenue, influenced by the early timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, with a notable acceleration in government debt issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [4]. - Expenditures in technology (10.6%), education (7.7%), and social security and employment (6.7%) have shown significant growth, reflecting strong support for livelihood and technological innovation [4].