风险月报 | 市场情绪持续回升，权益仍处中等偏低风险区间

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a moderate risk level indicated by the risk scoring systems, despite ongoing global uncertainties and geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - The risk score for the CSI 300 index increased to 47.51 from 41.98, indicating a rise in market sentiment [2]. - Market expectations remained stable, with a score of 56.00, reflecting positive signals from fiscal data and a shift in government spending priorities towards technology and social sectors [2]. - The two-way balance of margin trading decreased but remains at a historically high level, suggesting strong investor confidence [3]. Economic Data and Trends - The economic data for January-February showed a mixed performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% and retail sales growth at 4.0% [8]. - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1%, while real estate investment continued to decline at -9.8% [8]. - The broad infrastructure investment grew by 10%, indicating a shift towards more sustainable economic drivers [8]. Sector Performance and Valuation - Valuation disparities persist across sectors, with certain industries like steel and electronics exceeding historical valuation thresholds, while others like agriculture and textiles remain undervalued [2]. - The black commodity sector's risk score is at 49.2, indicating low risk, with ongoing support for prices due to low inventory levels and potential production cuts [14]. Policy and Market Outlook - The monetary policy stance is expected to focus on structural tools, with a neutral outlook on interest rates, oscillating between no rate cuts and potential adjustments in the near future [11][12]. - The fiscal policy is expected to support economic recovery, with significant net financing in government bonds indicating a proactive approach to stimulate growth [9]. Potential Risks - Key risks include the effectiveness of real estate support policies, changes in the geopolitical landscape, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [17].