【固收】稳中求胜，未来可期——中国绿色信用债现状与投资价值分析（张旭）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and characteristics of green bonds, particularly focusing on green credit bonds, which have shown resilience and growth in the current market environment [3][4]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Green Bonds - Green bonds are defined as securities issued to raise funds specifically for supporting green industries, projects, or economic activities, with 100% of the proceeds allocated to eligible green projects [2]. Group 2: Special Features of Green Credit Bonds - In 2024, the overall issuance scale of green bonds has slowed, but green credit bonds have seen a 25.5% year-on-year increase, reaching 262.68 billion yuan, primarily driven by the issuance of medium-term notes [3]. - The average issuance term of green credit bonds in 2024 is 4.9 years, significantly longer than that of non-green credit bonds, with an average coupon rate of 2.5%, showing a downward trend [3]. - Over 80% of issuers are industry entities, with a high concentration in economically developed regions such as Jiangsu, Hubei, and Zhejiang, and the main sectors for issuance include public utilities, transportation, and non-bank financial industries [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - As of February 28, 2025, the outstanding scale of green credit bonds is 898.54 billion yuan, accounting for 3.04% of the credit bond market, with medium-term notes making up the highest proportion at 48.4% [4]. - The remaining term structure of outstanding green credit bonds shows that the highest proportion (45.0%) falls within the 1-3 year range, with over 85% of bonds rated AA or above [4]. - Green credit bonds generally have lower valuation spreads compared to non-green credit bonds, indicating a relatively weaker "offensive" attribute, but high-rated bonds with terms over 10 years present opportunities for excess returns [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Green credit bonds are characterized by high yield stability and lower volatility compared to market averages, making them suitable as a "stabilizer" in investment portfolios [5]. - The low default rate of 0.15% since the inception of the green market in 2016, coupled with strong policy support, allows for a credit downshift strategy to seek excess returns [5]. - The article highlights the potential for central enterprises to issue long-term green bonds, which may create opportunities for rolling over existing debt [7].