现货市场加速覆盖却难盈利？储能商业模式迎来市场化考验

Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage capacity in China is experiencing explosive growth, with installed capacity expected to exceed 100GW by 2025, driven by favorable policies and market developments [2][3]. Group 1: Market Development - By the end of 2024, China's new energy storage installed capacity is projected to reach 78.3GW, surpassing pumped storage capacity for the first time [2]. - The rapid growth of new energy storage installations is accompanied by significant policy changes aimed at promoting market-oriented development [3]. Group 2: Spot Market Progress - Several provincial spot markets, including Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangdong, have transitioned to formal operation in 2024, with more regions expected to follow [5][6]. - The inter-provincial electricity spot market officially began operations in October 2024, marking a milestone in the establishment of a unified national electricity market [6]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - Initial market stages allow energy storage to choose between "quantity and price reporting" or "quantity without price reporting," with a gradual shift towards the former as the market matures [9]. - Price limits vary by region, with the highest clearing price in Inner Mongolia at 5 yuan/kWh and the lowest in Gansu at 0.65 yuan/kWh, indicating a conservative pricing mechanism [9]. - The average trading price in the spot market is declining due to falling primary energy prices and rapid growth in renewable energy generation, with 2024 spot price differences concentrated between 0.2-0.3 yuan/kWh [9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Structure - The establishment of a unified national market is driving the clarification of core rules in provincial long-term markets, ensuring efficient connections between long-term and spot markets [14]. - Energy storage can effectively meet peak demand and secure revenue through long-term trading mechanisms that utilize time-based pricing [14]. Group 5: Time-of-Use Pricing - By the end of 2024, 13 provinces have officially released new time-of-use pricing policies, with adjustments made to peak and valley periods to optimize energy storage operations [16][17]. - The expansion of floating price ranges in nine provinces is expected to enhance price differentials, benefiting energy storage profitability [17]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The release of the "136 Document" in February 2025 will significantly impact the energy storage industry by transitioning from mandatory storage to market-driven investment [22]. - The document is expected to widen price differentials, allowing energy storage facilities to capitalize on market price fluctuations [22]. - Companies in the energy storage sector will need to enhance their investment, trading, and production capabilities to adapt to the evolving market landscape [23].