雪球·2025-03-28 07:53Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consistent dividend payments as a measure of shareholder value, highlighting that companies like ExxonMobil have maintained or increased their dividends for over 20 years, even during challenging times like 2020 [1][3]. Dividend Stability - ExxonMobil has not decreased its per-share dividend for over 20 years, demonstrating a stable expectation for investors, even with a relatively low pre-tax dividend yield of around 3% [1][3]. - Chevron has also consistently increased its dividends over the past 20 years, similar to ExxonMobil [7]. Comparison with CNOOC - CNOOC's dividend history shows significant fluctuations, with per-share dividends of 0.78 HKD in 2019, 0.45 HKD in 2020, and 1.48 HKD in 2021, leading to uncertainty for individual investors [10][11]. - The article suggests that CNOOC does not provide the same emotional value to investors as ExxonMobil, as its dividend payments are less predictable [11]. Financial Position - As of the end of 2024, CNOOC has cash of 247 billion, with net cash of 163.4 billion after deducting interest-bearing debt of 83.6 billion, indicating a strong financial position compared to ExxonMobil's negative net cash of -18.5 billion [13][15]. - Despite CNOOC's superior net cash position, the article questions the stability of its dividend payments and emotional value for shareholders compared to ExxonMobil [15]. Valuation Concerns - The article highlights that while CNOOC has advantages in various financial metrics, its valuation is only one-third of ExxonMobil's during the same period, raising questions about its market perception [17]. - The inconsistency in CNOOC's dividend payments and the lack of a stable emotional value for investors are pointed out as significant drawbacks [17].