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海外研究|从美元指数看“海湖庄园协议”叙事
中信证券研究·2025-03-28 00:15

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of the US dollar index since March is attributed to unexpected strength in the euro due to fiscal stimulus plans and market speculation around "Trump Recession," rather than the narrative of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" being the main cause [1][4]. Group 1: "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Concept - Stephen Miran's concept of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" suggests that the dollar's trajectory will follow two phases: an initial phase of strong dollar due to tariffs, followed by a weaker dollar phase due to currency agreements [2][12]. - The first phase, characterized by tariffs, is currently in effect, aligning with the strong dollar narrative promoted by the Trump administration [12]. Group 2: Impact of "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Narrative - The narrative surrounding the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has circulated widely in the market, but it has not significantly influenced pricing, despite its weak dollar target seemingly correlating with the dollar index's decline [4][12]. - Concerns about a US recession are not as pronounced as they were in Q4 2023, indicating that the market's apprehension regarding a downturn is less than half of previous levels [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The expectation is that the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" narrative will not significantly impact the market in the short term, especially with the current economic data showing no clear signs of weakness [17]. - If Trump's tariff policies exceed expectations and the euro returns to a stronger fundamental position, the dollar index may experience a rebound [17].