能源化工｜多重扰动抬升油价中枢，国内油气企业再迎重估

Core Viewpoint - Trump's energy policy encourages oil and gas companies to increase production, but this does not necessarily lead to a decrease in oil prices. The U.S. has become a net exporter of oil and gas since 2020, with significant export growth expected in 2024, and high production costs supporting Brent crude prices in the range of $68 to $70 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are expected to influence oil prices, with a forecasted slight increase in Brent crude prices to $70 to $75 per barrel by 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Trump's Energy Policy - Trump's energy policy is a significant factor influencing future oil prices, aiming to increase U.S. oil and gas production, reduce consumer costs, and enhance manufacturing competitiveness. The policy includes a series of executive orders to expand energy production and reduce regulatory burdens [2]. - The U.S. is expected to see a potential growth trend in oil and gas production, but an increase in production does not guarantee a decrease in oil prices, as global supply and demand dynamics must also be considered [2]. Group 2: U.S. Oil and Gas Export Growth - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to achieve record high crude oil exports, with LNG exports increasing from 14.56 million tons in 2017 to 8.83 million tons in 2024. The U.S. is expected to become the first country to exceed 100 million tons of LNG exports by 2025 [3]. - The average daily crude oil production in the U.S. exceeded 13.5 million barrels in 2024, with a net export of 234,000 barrels per day. High oil prices benefit exports but can increase refinery costs and suppress domestic demand, suggesting that moderate oil price fluctuations are favorable for overall profitability [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Supply Disruptions - Trump's sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have led to frequent supply disruptions, with ongoing sanctions affecting Iranian oil sales and imposing tariffs on Venezuelan oil purchases [4][5]. - The geopolitical landscape, including tensions in the Middle East and slow progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, is likely to keep oil prices elevated due to multiple regional disturbances [7]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Demand Changes - The recent OPEC+ meeting has adjusted production increases to begin in April 2025, with a modest average monthly increase of 130,000 barrels per day. Current oil prices have already factored in expected supply increases, with demand changes becoming more critical [6]. - Recent data indicates significant reductions in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, supporting demand and contributing to upward pressure on oil prices [6]. Group 5: Price Forecast - Considering the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, along with geopolitical disturbances, Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise slightly to the range of $70 to $75 per barrel by 2025 [9].