黑色滞涨，有色走跌：申万期货早间评论-20250328

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions, highlighting the mixed performance of various sectors, with a focus on industrial revenue growth, commodity price fluctuations, and the impact of international trade policies on specific industries [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the first two months of the year, industrial enterprises in China achieved a revenue growth of 2.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - Manufacturing profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in the same period [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly rising, while black metals experienced a decline, particularly coking coal which fell by 1.06% [1]. - Palm oil prices increased by 2.17%, while basic metals mostly declined, with zinc down by 0.97% and copper down by 0.93% [1]. Group 3: International Trade and Policy Impact - Canadian Prime Minister announced a CAD 2 billion strategic response fund to protect jobs in the automotive industry affected by U.S. tariffs, aiming to establish a comprehensive automotive supply chain network [1]. - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, leading to significant profit declines for major Japanese automakers, with predictions of profit cuts of up to 66% for Nissan and 34% for Mazda if costs cannot be passed on [3]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The copper market is expected to experience slight oversupply by 2025, with stable domestic demand driven by power investment and appliance production [2][19]. - The palm oil market is facing a recovery in production but a significant drop in export demand, leading to price fluctuations [2][30]. Group 5: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices fell, while A50 futures rose slightly, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [7]. - The bond market saw a slight decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.785% [8]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a strong performance due to increased harvest rates in Brazil, but trade tensions are keeping prices firm [31]. - The apple market is seeing a decrease in cold storage inventory, indicating a potential increase in demand as the season progresses [33]. Group 7: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index showed a slight increase, with expectations for stabilization in freight rates due to limited capacity increases in April [40].