心动公司：一年 “心动”，一年 “心塞”？

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the second half of 2024 is stable, with revenue expectations met, but core operating profits fell short due to higher sales expenses and reliance on other income sources [2][9][36]. Group 1: Game Performance - Game revenue in the second half increased by 71% year-on-year, reaching CNY 2.78 billion, driven by new self-developed games like "Start Your Journey, Muffin" [3][24]. - The new game "Heart Town" is expected to perform well, although its iOS ranking has fluctuated recently, indicating a need for ongoing user engagement strategies [4][26]. - The pipeline for new games is limited, with fewer releases compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth [5][31]. Group 2: TapTap Performance - TapTap's domestic monthly active users (MAUs) reached 44.85 million, a 19% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by "Heart Town" [18][21]. - Internationally, TapTap's user base has stabilized after a decline, but future growth remains uncertain due to reduced marketing efforts [6][18]. - The monetization strategy for TapTap has remained conservative, with ad revenue per user stable compared to last year, but the platform holds a significant market share in the gaming ad sector [8][21]. Group 3: Profitability and Financials - The company reported a net profit of CNY 890 million for the year, within the guidance range, but core operating profits were below market expectations due to increased marketing costs for new games [9][36]. - The gross profit margin improved, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed games, although channel distribution costs increased due to overseas game launches [9][36]. - The company declared its first dividend of HKD 0.4 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of nearly 25%, which is considered a normal level for dividends [11]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations for 2025 are optimistic, with projected revenue growth of 25% and profit growth of 45%, although these projections may be overly optimistic given the current game pipeline [14][15]. - The company's market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15-16x, which is typical for gaming stocks in a favorable product cycle [14].