自由现金流指数牛在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the A-share ETF market, particularly focusing on "free cash flow" ETFs, which are expected to gain significant traction and popularity among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs - The launch of the E Fund's free cash flow ETF (code: 159222) on March 24, 2025, marks the beginning of a new investment trend, with management fees set at a competitive 0.15% plus 0.05% for custody [3]. - Historical performance of free cash flow ETFs shows a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market, which had returns of less than 8% [7]. - The National Index of Free Cash Flow (code: 980092) has unique compilation rules that exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on companies with sustainable operational capabilities [9]. Group 2: Index Compilation Rules - The index requires companies to have positive operating cash flow for the past three years, ensuring financial sustainability and avoiding companies with inflated profits [11]. - A stability assessment is conducted based on the past 12 quarters of ROE, eliminating the most volatile 10% of companies to enhance long-term stability [11]. - The final index is composed of the top 100 companies ranked by free cash flow rate, combining both quantity and quality of cash flow [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the A-share market and the U.S. market, noting that free cash flow is a relatively new concept in both, with the first cash flow ETF in the U.S. launched in 2016 [15]. - The free cash flow factor is positioned as a valuable selection criterion, supported by academic research indicating its ability to generate excess returns, especially during market downturns [18]. - The industry distribution of the National Index of Free Cash Flow shows significant overweights in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and household appliances compared to other indices [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that while the National Index of Free Cash Flow may perform well in the long term, it could underperform the overall A-share market in the short term, requiring a mindset geared towards gradual wealth accumulation [27][31]. - The index is viewed as a stabilizing component in a diversified investment portfolio, akin to high-dividend indices, providing lower volatility and superior long-term returns [31].