财政三个关切思辨：规模、缺口、乘数

Core Conclusion - The article discusses the discrepancies in market expectations regarding this year's fiscal budget, particularly in terms of the scale of spending and deficit levels, highlighting that actual fiscal strength may be closer to economic growth rather than the initially projected figures [2][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Spending Growth - The projected growth of broad fiscal spending is estimated at 3.6 trillion, with a growth rate of 9.3%. However, this calculation may overestimate actual spending due to technical details, suggesting a more realistic growth of approximately 1.6 trillion, with a growth rate around 4% [2][4][5]. - Historical data indicates that the method of summing the two accounts often leads to an overestimation of broad fiscal spending by 1-2 trillion and an overestimation of growth rates by 3-10% [5][4]. Group 2: Government Debt and Deficit Rate - The new government debt is projected to increase by 2.9 trillion, which could imply a broad deficit rate increase of 2 percentage points. However, the actual increase in the deficit rate is likely to be around 1 percentage point, still reaching a historical high [8][9]. - The calculation of the broad deficit rate should consider this year's GDP rather than last year's, leading to a revised estimate of the deficit rate at approximately 8.7% [8][9]. Group 3: Evaluation of Fiscal Spending Effectiveness - The effectiveness of fiscal spending may depend more on the fiscal multiplier rather than just the capital contribution. The capital contribution for this year appears limited, with a focus on expanding special bonds for investment [14][15]. - The government is expected to adopt measures to enhance the investment multiplier, such as optimizing the management of special bonds and supporting new investment areas [15][18]. - There is a notable shift towards increasing the consumption multiplier, with a higher proportion of new bonds allocated for consumption-related projects compared to previous years [17][18].